I want to do an international update on what’s going on in the Omicron situation.
Now, I think what we need to realize is that where South Africa is now, the United Kingdom will probably be in two or three weeks, maybe four weeks, and the United States will be a few weeks after that.
This is kind of the progression of the spread of Omicron. So we need to look at what’s going on in South Africa to find out what’s going to be happening to us pretty soon.
Let’s go straight onto the orientation slides, and here we do see it has to be said, quite a steep increase in the number of hospitalizations in South Africa. The blue is public and the green is private.
So it’s the total number we need to look at. So we are indeed seeing an increase in hospitalizations in South Africa. Now, as far as we can tell, the percentage of hospitalizations is not that high.
It’s the sheer number of people with infections. That seems to be the issue here.
Ward situation in South Africa
Now, when we look at the Ward situation in South Africa as we have been doing, we see that there are 5300 people in hospital, 404 of those are in intensive care. Bear in mind this is for the whole country, with a population of 40 million. high care, 419 normal Ward care, 4,521.
So patients actually in hospital have to be said fairly modest numbers at the moment. And then when we look at the degree of care that those patients are requiring, so they’re the patients in the hospital that are patients in intensive care.
And these are patients that are currently oxygenated in high care. So for the whole country, 734 patients, oxygenated. So we’re not seeing the massive oxygen demand in the care in South Africa that we saw in the other previous wave. So it’s looking like patients are not as ill, which is very encouraging.
Omicron Confirmed Cases Situation in the World:
Now, just a few more orientation screens before we get down to some details confirmed new cases.
Now, this is Slovenia. Here, we have large cases. Now, we don’t have good genomic information on that. We believe this is still Delta, but we don’t really know.
Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark, Ireland, Norway, France, United Kingdom, Germany, United States, Canada, India, Japan. In that order, Japan is still following up at the bottom there.
We do know there’s quite a little bit of Omicron in Denmark. We do know there’s quite a bit in Norway, but carrying on with the orientation now, here we see that the actual Omicron in red here is just way behind.
This data is way out of date. For example, we know that in Denmark, there’s a lot of Omnicron. So our world in data simply not keeping up. But we will carry on seeing an increasing redness of that graphic as we keep an eye on the Omicron run over the next days and weeks.
Indeed, a number of patients in hospitals, Slovakia, part of the old Czechoslovakia. Of course, a lot of patients in hospital there and indeed Belgium hospital patients growing up quite significantly then Switzerland, United States, France, Netherlands, United Kingdom Island, Denmark, Norway, Canada.
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And we do notice that Norway and Denmark do have quite large numbers of Omicron patients or confirmed cases, but so far relatively low hospitalizations, so that continues to be encouraging.
Now, this is the stringency index. I haven’t put this slide on before, but it’s quite interesting. This is a stringency index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators, including school closure.
It’s basically how much of a restrictive lockdown there is at the moment.
Germany with the most restrictions then going on to Canada, France, Slovakia, Netherlands. You can see that for yourself.
That’s quite interesting. Norway with very low restrictions there. So I thought that was just an interesting one to put in that this is the way that countries are responding to the current pandemic, newly confirmed cases per million people, South Africa going up dramatically and we will be seeing this sort of increase in cases in the United Kingdom and the United States and possibly Canada because this is leading the way.
So Omicron charges being led by South Africa, followed by the United Kingdom and Canada with the United States, where it’s in about half the States now, but is still in its process of spreading around in the United States.
Hospitalizations in South Africa, as we’ve seen, have gone up quite sharply. But this is because so many people, we believe it’s because so many people have the infection at the moment.
So that’s a bit of orientation now going on to a bit of detail. Michelle Willinsky sensitive control. Of course, the disease is mild in almost all of the cases seen so far in the United States, which is good.
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Having said that, I think that’s based on about 43 cases that the States have identified now, of course, there’s way more cases than this in the States, but the genomic sequencing is pretty pathetic.
So that’s all I’ve managed to definitively confirmed so far, but we can assume that we could put a note at the end of that.
I think quite easily 75% of cases are vaccinated. So we see that vaccinated people are becoming infected and testing positive with Omicron. This is repeated all over the world.
Now, Scotland is expecting a tsunami of Omicron families in Scotland to self isolate for ten days if one member tests positive regardless of their vaccination status and even if they initially get a negative test.
So this is sort of the political response in Scotland. And of course, what this means if this is maintained as omicron increases in Scotland, Scotland is basically going to completely shut down if this is maintained.
So it’s hard to see how it can be really.
The Uk government is already working on a PLAN C. Parts of Plan B came into force.
In other words, the UK government is preparing for a worst-case scenario.
Uk Health Security Agency, this is their latest Twittering about an hour ago, 1265 confirmed cases. We can easily put a note at the end of that. I’m quite sure about that. So there’s 1220 thousand cases in the UK at the moment, something like that.
Now, this is from the UK Health Security Agency used to be Public Health England. Omicron is displaying a significant growth advantage to Delta, so it’s our competing Delta.
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Now, people often ask me, do you think that we’re going to end up with Delta and Omega?
And I think what we’re seeing in South Africa is that the Omicron has replaced the Delta. So I think it’s likely it’s going to replace it because it is so much more transmissible.
People also often ask, Can you become infected with two strains of the virus at the same time?
For example, could you get Omega and Delta at the same time?
Absolutely, you could.
And what happens then?
We’re not really sure, but certainly, you could indeed. Perhaps the reason we have the Omicron variant is that someone got the Delta infection and they had a coronavirus common cold as well. And the two viruses shared their genetic material from Coinfection.
We know that if people get covered and influenza at the same time, that’s associated with the worst prognosis.
So certainly you can have as many viruses as you’re exposed to at the same time. It’s not that you only have one at a time.
Multiple coinfections are certainly feasible likely to outcompete Delta and become the dominant variant. Yes, we’ve been saying this for about a week on this channel, of course.
But it’s good to see that the UK Health Security Agency is now confirming this. If the growth rate and doubling time continues, at least 50% of covid 19 cases to be caused by the Omicron variant by mid-December, which is only about when is mid-December?
I suppose it’s only five days away, isn’t it?
So on the 50% of cases pretty soon 1 million by the end of December.
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